|Author(s): David G. Bakken
Collection: Innovate 2005
Keywords: Statistic Analysis, Innovation
ESOMAR Best Paper Award 2005/2006
|PDF version (download)|
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This paper describes the paradigm shift that has been occurring in the statistical analysis of marketing data over the past 10 years. The new paradigm reflects a perspective on probability that was first proposed in the 18th century by Thomas Bayes, an English clergyman.
These new methods of analysis offer better solutions to a wider range of marketing problems than classical statistical methods. After a brief introduction to the Bayesian view of probability, the paper discusses the potential impact of Bayesian analysis on managerial decision-making.
Two case studies demonstrate the power of these methods for understanding and predicting consumer behavior.